The GOP pull-out of the budget talks today really worried me--it raises my subjective probability of a US default, which would be potentially catastrophic. But when I looked at long-term bond prices on Bloomberg, they suggest the bond markets are completely calm.
At a Rand meeting yesterday, Stuart Gabriel called housing the "tail that wags the dog" of the US economy. He was likely referring to this paper or, perhaps, this paper. In any event, the evidence from past business cycles powerfully supports residential construction as a leading indicator. Here is the St. Louis Fed's depiction of [...]
As I am preparing for a panel on the US budget I will be participating in on Thursday in Madison, a principle occurs to me. Given that over the past 30 years the economy has disproportionately benefitted high income people far more than low income people, and holders of capital more than earners of wages, any [...]
Are they telling us anything about the US fiscal condition that the whole world doesn't know? Is there anything to suggest that their past insights have been particularly penetrating? Just wondering...
Just for grins, I looked to see how the ten largest cities around the time I was born have changed in terms of rank. The top ten in 1960 and their current rank: New York (still # 1) Chicago (now 3) Los Angeles (now 2) Philadelphia (now 5) Detroit (now 18) Baltimore (now 21) Houston [...]